Coronavirus is a harsh reality taking lives left, right, and center. Whether you believe COVID-19 to be a hoax or a genuine issue. The ferocious wave of an unforgiving pandemic stands tall among us.
COVID-19 cases in Pakistan had passed China’s with a tally of 85,264 along with 82 fatalities in one day. The nationwide count of casualties has jumped to 1,770. and more than 5,000 cases were reported.
Pakistan left China behind in numbers of cases as the total number crossed 85,000 mark against China’s 83,021 cases. The number of tests conducted in the country so far is 20,167 with 20,000 per day sampling.
Recently, a twitter user has brought to light some hard-hitting facts that will truly open people’s eyes. Waqas Ahmed has shared a twitter thread where he has explained how July will see a rise in Coronavirus cases.
I don't normally make non-cricket threads & considering I've given up on making Pakistanis understand that Corona is real, I'll just present some exponential data sets which I believe should put things into perspective.
As a rule of thumb in data engineering, we always take log~
— Waqas Ahmed (@ahmedwaqas992) June 8, 2020
as the scaling parameter for the axis whenever charting exponential growth. V do this because it scales small numbers up & large numbers down which makes it possible for growth rates 2 B mapped in real-time & inferred upon by means of comparison
In the case of Pakistan the best~
— Waqas Ahmed (@ahmedwaqas992) June 8, 2020
way to show the uptick is to segregate new cases by a weekly count. A weekly count essentially provides us with a very reliable growth model who’s uptick is graphically evident.
The content below represents Pakistan’s NEW Covid-19 cases generated each week into the pandemic~ pic.twitter.com/OV3a9J4pcV
— Waqas Ahmed (@ahmedwaqas992) June 8, 2020
Pakistanis were careless with SOPs
Further, he added saying, “Ulemas demanded that mosques are reopened and the majority of the population started heavily defying the SOPs, even going so as far as renouncing that Corona even existed. The results, if you look back at the chart above, were devastating. #Pakistan doubled its tally while percentage growth on the accumulation of new cases went well above 120%~ each given week.”
Moreover, it stands true that people didn’t follow the government advised SOPs and shopped for Eid without a care in the world.
“While we saw an increase in our testing capacity but even so, the numbers don’t align with our models at all, considering Pakistan has a limited number of testing facilities spread to cater to a population of 200 million” he further added.
‘Eradicating COVID now impossible for Pakistan’
“Sadly the time for taking measures to prevent a complete outbreak has long passed and all we can do now (post 100k cases) is to brace for impact on what’s to come next.”
Lastly, he added, “I know this sounds gloomy but pandemics are no joke. Once exponential growth goes out of control it becomes not humanly possible for a country like Pakistan to put a lid on it with its constrained resources.”
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