Allan Lichtman, an American historian has been known to have predicted every winner of US
elections since the 1980s except for the 2000s. Unlike other predictions like those allegations
held against the Simpsons, these predictions are more quantifiable.
There are 13 basic rules that Allan follows to determine the winner.’ Keys to the White House, a
checklist of 13 points ranging from economics, politics, and miscellaneous policies. The ‘Key to
the White House’ checklist is divided into long-term and short-term.
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These checks lists speak of candidates standing in mid-term elections, internal party challenges,
whether a candidate is sitting or not, the presence of a third party, and long-term and short-term
policies regarding economics, and foreign relations.
Even in the case of the elections of the 2000s, Allan’s prediction was almost correct for the
candidate Democrat Al Gore did end up getting the popular vote.
In light of the recent events and steps taken by the Biden administration considering local
educational and foreign policy Allan finds it hard to determine the outcome of the 2024 election.
